We take a look at Friday’s (5/7/2019) AFL 2019 Week 16 match is between Hawthorn Hawks and the Collingwood Magpies. The Magpies go into the match as the heavily backed favourites in the betting.
When: Friday July 5th, 7:50pm
Bet: Bet On This Match HERE
The luckless Hawks are in must-win mode of they are any hope of playing finals when they host the Pies on Friday night footy. A wet, miserable day at the MCG almost proved the tonic to turn the Hawks’ season around, but they fell to a late Jamie Cripps goal and lost by that goal in round 15. They play a Collingwood side hampered by injury, but well below its best against North, falling by a season high 44 points. The 10-4 Pies scored just five goals and were completely dominated for much of the contest, recording just 12 scoring shots to their opponent’s 26.
Hawthorn is just 2-5 at the MCG this season straight up and against the handicap, failing to cover as 3.5 point underdogs last week. The Pies are 6-3 at their home ground, but just 3-6 against the spread. It is the brown and gold that have the wood on Collingwood in recent times, winning four of the past five clashes between the two. The teams have not met since round 1 last season, when Hawthorn humbled Collingwood by 34 points.
Despite losing four on the trot, the Hawks haven’t been blown away in any of their recent losses. They have actually suffered three losses by 19 points and one by just a goal, which makes them a tantalising option at the line this week. They have opened as near three goal underdogs to an up-and-down Pies side who have won their fair share of matches this season, but done in the hard way at times. They had to fight hard in the last term before blowing the Saints away, lost to the Dockers by four points, beat Carlton by 19 points, defeated the Dees by 41 points, the Dogs by 9 points and lost to North. It’s a strange form line given the quality of that opposition and they may well win, but Hawthorn has been on the cusp of a breakthrough win and they are a good price to get it this week.
Tip: Collingwood Magpies at $1.43
Value Tip: First Goal Scorer: Brody Mihocek at $11.00
B: O’Brien, Frawley, Burgoyne
HB: Nash, Sicily, Hardwick
C: Henderson, Howe, Scully
HF: Breust, Gunston, Puopolo
F: Hanrahan, Lewis, Impey
FOLL: McEvoy, O’Meara, Worpel
INT: Stratton, Smith, Shiels, Glass
EMG: Jones, Brand, Cousins, Ceglar
IN: Lewis, Stratton
OUT: Ceglar, Moore
B: Maynard, Roughead, Scharenberg
HB: Crisp, Moore, Quaynor
C: Phillips, Pendlebury, Mayne
HF: Brown, Cox, Hoskin-Elliott
F: De Goey, Mihocek, Elliott
FOLL: Grundy, Treloar, Sidebottom
INT: Aish, Daicos, Sier, Thomas
EMG: Brown, Crocker, Noble, Varcoe
IN: Quaynor, Elliott, Aish
OUT: Reid, Varcoe, Greenwood
*Odds correct at time of posting. Subject to change