Winter Stakes Tips, Odds and Betting – 2014

Posted by on 17/7/2014
Filled in: Horse Racing

Scream Machine and Generalife – both looking for a hat-rick of wins and their second victory at Stakes level, dominate the market for this Saturday’s Winter Stakes at Rosehill. Scream Machine ($3.50) enjoys racing on the Rosehill circuit, having won five of his ten starts, including his two most recent outings, and has placed a further four times. Generalife continued his meteoric rise through the grades this campaign and in six starts, has graduated from a RST 84 at Moonee Valley, to be an authoritative winner of the Listed Civic Stakes a fortnight ago.

In the ilk of stable-mate Knoydart, who blossomed last Spring to run third in the G1 Oakleigh Plate and Newmarket Handicap, Generalife’s future looks similarly as bright. The only other runner in the race is Romantic Moon, one of two 3yo’s in the race, at $7.00. Chris Waller will be represented by four runners – Tromso, Coup Ay Tee, Tougher Than Ever and Hidden Kisses with the latter two the pick of his chances according to the betting markets, both at $10.00.

Winter Stakes Form Guide

 

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1. TROMSO – J Parr (3) 59kgs

The 7yo had been in solid form this prep and two starts back, after leading from the jump, was caught in the shadows of the post when fourth (3/4 lengths) behind Scream Machine – who had a 3.5kgs advantage, in an Open Class race over 1500m at Rosehill. He then dropped back to the 1350m of the Civic Stakes, again sat on the speed but wasn’t able to show the acceleration needed at the top of the straight and struggled into eighth spot, 7 lengths from the winner Generalife. Will push forward again and his previous efforts have deserved him another shot in this race. Can fill a place with a soft lead.

Odds: $17.00

 

2. SCREAM MACHINE – T Angland (10) 58.5kgs

Jason Coyle’s Excites gelding has been at the top of his game this preparation, running a close up sixth (1.9 lengths) in the WFA G1 Doomben Cup behind Spirit Of Boom, before winning his next two – both at Rosehill and in Open Class, in good style. The most recent of the two victories saw him settled last in the field of seven but hooking wide as they straightened for home, he was able to reel his competitors and win by ½ length with something still to spare. Going well enough to handle the further rise in the weights and has won five and placed a further four occasions from ten starts on this track. Provided the tempo is no worse than moderate, and there’s no reason it should be, he’ll be hitting the line strongly again.

Odds: $3.50

 

3. COUP AY TEE – J Collett (4) 58kgs

He was doing his best work late second up from a spell when eighth (3.7 lengths) behind the in form Scream Machine before surprisingly, dropping back in distance and contesting the Listed Civic Stakes (1350m) a fortnight ago. As expected, and as he will also do here, he dropped out to the tail of the field and stuck the rails for this run home, making only moderate ground to run sixth (5.5 lengths) behind Generalife. The rails wasn’t the ideal place to be last fortnight and whilst this is back to the 1400m, might still be too short given his recent efforts.

Odds: $15.00

 

4. GENERALIFE – K McEvoy (6)

Darley’s son of Lonhro won his seventh career race and his third from five starts this preparation with an impressive 2 ¼ length win in the Listed Civic Stakes a fortnight ago. Camping just off the speed, Generalife was produced by young apprentice Sam Clipperton at the right time and showed a very neat turn of foot in running away with the win. He’ll tuck in behind the speed again here and on last start, has to rate the one to beat.

Odds: $3.40

 

5. UNDER THE SUN – (7) 56kgs

Despite a smart barrier trail win in preparation for his return to racing in the Listed Ramornie Handicap a week and a half ago, the Gai Waterhouse trained galloper blew alarmingly in betting – 7/1 out to 16/1, and ran accordingly. He jumped from a handy gate to settle on the speed but was under pressure approaching the turn and fell back through the field in the straight to finish second to last and eight lengths from the winner Big Money. He ran last second up last prep and has too much improvement to make off of his Grafton effort to be included in the numbers here.

Odds: $41.00

 

6. TOUGHER THAN EVER – T Clark (2) 55.5kgs

The 4yo entire by General Nediym did a great job second up from a spell to finish fourth (2.2 lengths) behind Scream Machine in an Open Class event over 1400m. He crossed from the second to widest gate in a field of thirteen to take up the running and held on well for fourth (2.2 lengths) behind Scream Machine who, along with the second and third placed runners, all closed from well back in the field. His only start since has been in the Civic Stakes where from a much better draw, he found the one – one position but was disappointing in the run home, finishing second to last and over seven lengths from Generalife. Has a lot to turn around in the space of a fortnight and it may take a wet track to see him do it.

Odds: $10.00

 

7. THE PEAK – T Marshall (5) 55kgs

Home steadily first up in the June Stakes (1100m), running sixth behind the smart mare Avoid Lightning and off of that effort, more was expected form the Bart and James Cummings’ trained runner at his next start than the sixth (3.7 lengths) of twelve he submitted. He settled in a nice spot during the run and was in a position to do more than he did on the turn and only batted home behind Oakfield Commands. It was a similar story at his following and most recent run when fifth (4.9 lengths) in the Listed Civic Stakes (1350m) a fortnight ago. That was his fifth attempt at Listed level and he is yet to register a place. Needs to lift.

Odds: $12.00

 

8. HIDDEN KISSES – J McDonald (8) 54kgs

First up off a seven month spell, the Hidden Dragon mare was trying to pinch runs along the fence from back in the field but had no luck at all, finishing fourth (3.5 lengths) to Oakfield Commands, before lining up in the Listed Civic Stakes. She per normal, she settled in the tail-end of the field but disappointingly, made little impression from her position in the straight, running an average seventh (6.9 lengths) behind Generalife. She hit form toward the end of last prep, winning the Listed Toy Show (defeating Royal Descent) and running a close third to Diamond Earth in the G3 The Nivison. Might’ve been a bit flat second up off a lengthy spell and a nice price, couldn’t write her totally off running a nice race here.

Odds: $10.00

 

9. ROMANTIC MOON – C Reith (1) 54kgs

After running two solid thirds second and then third up from a lengthy spell, punters believed the More Than Ready filly was ready to deliver last start and they were right. Starting the 7/2 favourite in a BM 83 (1500m), the Bart and James Cummings trained mare jumped to the lead from an inside gate – like she has drawn here – and defied all challengers to win by ¾ length with Adorabeel second. Takes a big step up in class here but has been carrying big weights so the 54kgs, combined with the inside draw that will see her lead or sit on the pace, should see her give a good account of herself.

Odds: $7.00

 

10. WOULDN’T IT BE NICE – J Lloyd (9) 54kgs

The Choisir gelding will be making a quick back-up from last week where he finished steadily from the back of the field to run fourth (1.5 lengths) in a BM 85 (1300m) behind Burbero. That was his third run in this prep, all at the same grade, and whilst each have been solid and there’s winning form around him, he faces a tough task here and find it hard to see him running some of his opponents down.

Odds: $21.00

 

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RACE OVERVIEW

The filly Tougher Than Ever should lead. She’s drawn the inside gate, is fourth up and with a light weight compared to her previous starts, they’ll be keen to take advantage of the situation. Keeping her honest should be Tromso, Under The Sun and Tougher Than Ever whilst falling in behind the speed should be Generalife. His last start win was extremely impressive and he should secure a very similar run here. Together with Scream Machine, who’ll be giving Generalife a start when they turn for home, their form is clearly better than most of their competitors. Waller’s pair of Hidden Kisses and Coup Ay Tee – both, who would enjoy a solid tempo up front, are the best chances to cause an upset should there be one.

  1. GENERALIFE
  2. SCREAM MACHINE
  3. HIDDEN KISSES
  4. COUP AY TEE